Actually Germany could hit a fully stacked UK(4INF,1ARM,4FTR,1BMB,1aa) with 10INF,1ARM,2FTR WEu/Fin),1BMB with a 67% chance of taking and the scenario requiring Rus to pile INF and FTR into UK precludes anything but a weak strafe of Ukr (6INF,3ARM) which can come out ugly for Russia. This sets up a really weakly defended Karelia... Germany could switch tactics and go for Karelia with everything from Fin/WEu/Ger using 6TRN to shuttle another 6INF,2ARM to the battle.

If Axis places 5TRNs in Bal SZ the only real option is to send 2FTR,1TRN,1SUB against the fleet and hope for really good rolls.

With the 3TRN,1CV in Bal SZ it's even worse as Germany can bring all their FTRs to the party in London...